Here me out: TankerTrackers reports Iran has up to 20 VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers, supertankers each can hold 2 million barrels of oil) available to absorb excess crude, buying Iran’s oil fields critical time before forced well shutdowns.

All you need is one unknown covert operation.

Kharg Island runs on subsea manifolds. Underwater junction points where every pipeline from Iran’s mainland oil fields converges before splitting out to the offshore loading platforms. They are the circulatory system of the entire terminal. No manifolds, no flow.

An unknown underwater drone reaches those manifolds.

Even with outside help, repairing subsea infrastructure underwater in wartime takes at least 3 weeks. That is before a single barrel moves.

Every VLCC sitting full offshore will be at zero use. The wells shut in quite quickly.