Polymarket

Polymarket odds of a renewed U.S. naval blockade of Iran jumped from 28% to 56% in two weeks.

Polymarket users now put a 70% chance Iran starts charging fees for Hormuz passage by October 31.

Polymarket now sees a 38% chance Iran closes its airspace before Aug. 31.

I understand we aren’t out of the woods yet, but 38% seems high

Polymarket users give a 81% chance the Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted on July 15.

I’m not well versed in UK politics, but am I reading this right?

Polymarket users are currently giving Prime Minister Keir Starmer a 92% chance of being out of office by next month.

What did I miss?

Market barely reacted after Trump announced the deal was “settled.” Meanwhile, Polymarket users currently give a 35% chance that Iran gives up its uranium by December 31.

(Still very high in my opinion)

Polymarket now gives the US-Iran ceasefire extension a 49% chance by June 30. Down 31 points.

Polymarket users are now pricing a permanent U.S.-Iran ceasefire by June 30 at just 26%.

That number was sitting at 76% nine days ago.

Polymarket now has Gallrein at 58% to beat Massie in KY-04. Primary is TOMORROW.

A lot can change until then.

79% chance Starmer is gone by December 31st - Polymarket

532K likes on Instagram. 14% on Polymarket.

What does this tell you?

532K likes on Instagram. 14% on Polymarket. The Pakistani fan base does not win primaries.

A Tel Aviv district court ordered electronic monitoring and house arrest for an Israeli Air Force officer accused in the Polymarket betting scandal. The officer told the court he didn't understand the gravity of what he was doing and claimed gambling was widespread across the Air Force. The presiding judge criticized the remark but called for serious internal reflection within the branch.

Interesting: Polymarket users give Naftali Bennett a slight lead over PM Netanyahu.

It’s still way too early to tell in my opinion.

A guy made $36,900 on Polymarket by walking up to the weather sensor the platform was using, an unguarded thermometer near a Paris airport runway, and pointing a hairdryer at it.

Entered with $2,000 at 5 cents. Bought YES on temperature targets. Heated the sensor. Collected his winnings. Ran.

The meteorological service launched an investigation. The sensor now has a security guard. The guy is gone.

4 days ago, Polymarket had Iran surrendering uranium at 65% by April 30.

Today, that probability has dropped to 16%.

Majority of polymarket users are not pricing in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the month.

Polymarket: Péter Magyar leads Hungary PM market at 72%, with Orbán at 28%.

Interesting.

Despite the 2 week ceasefire with Iran, which was supposed to include the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Polymarket users give just a 26% chance that traffic returns to normal by the end of April.

Ceasefire still seems very shaky. We will see.

Canada: Alberta edges toward a secession vote after separatists hit signature threshold; Polymarket odds now at 64%.

82% of polymarket traders don’t see a ceasefire by March 31