Beni Sabti (INSS) breaks down his take on the cost behind the deal.
Read the full thought piece here👇🏽
@BeniSabti
Iran expert Beni Sabti (INSS) argues the deal isn’t a sign of Iranian power, but of a regime overextending.
Read the full thought piece here👇🏽
@BeniSabti
MUST READ ASSESSMENT: IRAN
Yesterday, Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman published one of the most revealing assessments to date on the 2025 war with Iran.
Hayman, who now leads the Institute for National Security Studies, argues that Israel ...
MUST READ ASSESSMENT: IRAN
Yesterday, Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman published one of the most revealing assessments to date on the 2025 war with Iran.
Hayman, who now leads the Institute for National Security Studies, argues that Israel achieved significant tactical gains but failed to fundamentally alter the two pillars that matter most: the survival of the Iranian regime and the advancement of its nuclear program.
According to Hayman, Iran moved quickly to recover. Fordow was repaired, work accelerated at the deeply buried “Pickaxe Mountain” facility, ballistic missile production reached roughly 125 missiles per month, and Iran had amassed an estimated 2,500 ballistic missiles by the start of Operation Roaring Lion.
Tehran also doubled funding to Hezbollah and restored weapons supply routes through Syria despite the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Hayman reveals that Israel’s political leadership initially sought regime change. A central element was a planned Kurdish uprising designed to trigger internal unrest and help topple the government. That operation was canceled, reportedly after pressure from Turkey and Arab allies, eliminating Israel’s main mechanism for destabilizing the regime from within.
Iran, meanwhile, had prepared for decapitation strikes by decentralizing command. Field officers were authorized in advance to launch ballistic missiles and close the Strait of Hormuz without waiting for orders. When the succession issue emerged, Mojtaba Khamenei was elevated with IRGC backing, preventing a leadership vacuum.
Hayman says Iran’s closure of Hormuz shifted Washington’s priorities toward protecting global energy markets. At the same time, the war exposed the limits of airpower, with much of Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure surviving in hardened underground facilities.
He warns that Mojtaba Khamenei is more radical than his father and may no longer feel bound by the regime’s previous religious restrictions on nuclear weapons development. Israel, he says, should assume a covert military nuclear program is already underway.
Hayman also reveals it took Iran 40 hours of intense pressure to persuade Hezbollah to join the war. Although heavily degraded, retaining just 10% of its pre-war arsenal would still leave Hezbollah with about 15,000 rockets and missiles.
His conclusion is stark: if diplomacy fails and war resumes, Iran’s nuclear program must be the top target from day 1.
“Aerial strikes alone will not be enough.” - @AmitSegal
