Location

Beirut

29 last 7 days
207 all time
Signals

FACT: Dahiyeh, southern Beirut is Hezbollah’s main urban stronghold and political center.

Tucker Carlson: “I don’t understand why Israel wants to destroy Lebanon for reasons that are not clear at all, or murder Christians wholesale. Why are they bombing Beirut? It’s not a traditional Hezbollah stronghold.”

Also, he’s simply engaging in blood libel by claiming Israel is attacking Christians “wholesale” in Lebanon.

Signals

ANALYSIS: The IRGC made a major fumble by tying Hezbollah to any future deal with the U.S.

That decision is now being used against them. Heavy.

From what I’m seeing, Israel has never been more determined to dismantle Hezbollah. The think...

ANALYSIS: The IRGC made a major fumble by tying Hezbollah to any future deal with the U.S.

That decision is now being used against them. Heavy.

From what I’m seeing, Israel has never been more determined to dismantle Hezbollah. The thinking appears to be simple: if the Iranian regime insists on making Hezbollah part of the equation, then Hezbollah becomes the target.

Israel wasn’t able to finish the job against the IRGC yet, but it now using this opportunity to focus overwhelming military pressure on Iran’s most important proxy sitting on its border.

The result is an intensified campaign to completely wipe out Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, and potentially much deeper, into Hezbollahs largest stronghold in Beirut as well.

In fact, Israel just approved strikes on Beirut for ANY Hezbollah fire that crosses into Israel.

A terrible miscalculation by Tehran.

Jay.

Alerts

Iran says it is ending its strikes on Israel.

But based on my understanding, the key question is Hezbollah. If Hezbollah resumes attacks on northern Israel, Israel is expected to strike Beirut.

If Israel strikes Beirut, the IRGC has indicated it would respond with further attacks on Israel.

In other words, whether this holds or unravels may depend on whether Hezbollah stays quiet.

Alerts

For those asking why Iran is launching missiles tonight:

The ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon was relatively simple. Israel would avoid striking Beirut, and Hezbollah would stop firing rockets into northern Israel.

That ...

For those asking why Iran is launching missiles tonight:

The ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon was relatively simple. Israel would avoid striking Beirut, and Hezbollah would stop firing rockets into northern Israel.

That understanding broke down today.

Israel struck Beirut after Hezbollah rocket fire toward northern Israel. Iran had previously warned it would respond to any Israeli strike on Beirut.

So far, Iran has launched 6 missile barrages toward northern Israel.

Israel is preparing for a response.

That is where the situation stands tonight.

Alerts

HERE WE GO

Iranian state media: Supreme National Security Council has called an emergency session following Israel’s strike on Beirut’s Dahiyeh district.

They promised to strike israel, cancel ceasefire if Israel strikes Beirut.

We may get a strong worded statement and threat, or maybe more, depending on the regimes appetite.

Iran striking israel is not like striking Kuwait. Israel will respond harshly.