Washington is preparing to announce an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as early as today. Tehran spent this morning saying no reopening happens until American behavior changes.

Both governments say progress has been made. They are not describing the same agreement.

What Washington is preparing to announce

Axios, citing U.S. and regional officials, reports the United States, Iran and Oman have been negotiating a 60 day interim framework to restore commercial shipping through the Strait.

Inbound vessels entering the Persian Gulf would use a northern lane running close to Iranian territorial waters. Outbound traffic would transit a southern lane along the Omani coast in coordination with Iran. Transit fees would be waived for the 60 days while naval mines laid during the conflict are cleared. Once demining is finished, the central lane reopens under a longer term maritime arrangement that Oman and Iran keep negotiating.

Iranian leadership completed its internal review on Tuesday, which is what cleared the way for Washington to prepare an announcement.

Trump said a deal could happen tomorrow or the next day, that a lot of progress has been made, and that the Strait is going to be open very soon. He added that if Iran walks away from the agreement, they are going to get hit very hard. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put the odds of an agreement at today or tomorrow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged progress and said the talks have not reached finality.

Note what the framework does and does not settle. It moves ships. It does not resolve who administers the waterway once the 60 days expire. That question is being deferred into a negotiation between Tehran and Muscat that has no deadline attached to it.

Iran has not changed its message

Iranian state television said Wednesday that reopening the Strait depends on a change in U.S. behavior, and that the Oman talks are unrelated to any immediate reopening.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei continues to insist Iran is not in direct negotiations with the United States. The discussions run through Oman. They concern safe inbound and outbound routes that respect Iranian sovereign rights and national security. Results get announced when they are concluded.

That is not the language of a government about to stand next to an American announcement. It is the language of a government preparing to describe the same document differently.

Washington will sell this as a temporary framework that restores navigation, lowers the risk of escalation and opens room for nuclear talks. Tehran will sell it as recognition of Iranian authority over the Strait. Neither has to lie to do it.

The shipping war did not pause for the diplomacy

In the 5 days before the expected announcement, 3 commercial vessels were attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

The worst of them was the Liberian flagged, Greek owned bulk carrier MV Minoan Pioneer, struck while transiting the U.S. designated southern lane roughly 23 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. The crew abandoned ship.

CENTCOM maintains the southern route is open. As of August 4, U.S. forces say they have redirected 45 commercial vessels, disabled 2, boarded 2 more to enforce compliance, and safely assisted more than 1,000 transits through the Strait despite repeated Iranian interference.

Those numbers are meant to show the route works. Read them the other way. It takes a redirect, a boarding and a disabling operation to keep a commercial lane functioning in what is nominally a ceasefire.

Pay Attention to the Red Sea

On August 4 the Indian flagged MSV Faize Noore Oliya sank after being struck off Yemen near Hodeidah. Yemen’s internationally recognized government says the vessel was hit by an explosives laden unmanned surface vessel. All 14 crew, including 13 Indian nationals, were rescued by the Yemeni Coast Guard and taken to the Port of Mokha.

India condemned the attack on a defenseless commercial vessel and called the pattern of strikes on international shipping deeply worrisome. The Indian Embassy in Riyadh is coordinating with Yemeni authorities. Yemen’s Transportation Ministry blamed the Houthis. The group has not claimed it.

On August 5, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced a new phase of the campaign and claimed several ballistic missiles hit the Saudi oil tanker Wafa in the northern Red Sea near Yanbu. The claim is unverified.

Saree called Wafa the 8th Saudi tanker targeted since the Houthis declared their blockade on Saudi shipping on July 22, claimed 29 Saudi tankers have turned back or been prevented from completing voyages, and vowed to intensify operations against Saudi linked shipping in the northern Red Sea.

Yanbu is hundreds of kilometers north of Bab el Mandeb. It is also where Saudi crude leaves the country after the East West pipeline routes it around the Gulf entirely. Rerouting north was supposed to be how Saudi exporters got out from under the blockade. The Houthis have now declared the workaround itself a target.

Riyadh is being squeezed at both ends of its export network in the same week Washington is trying to sell a Hormuz reopening as de escalation.

The deal reopens a waterway, the shipping war continues

The framework, if announced, lowers the temperature at one chokepoint for 60 days while mines are cleared from the Strait. It does not end the maritime conflict. The Red Sea remains active, the Houthis are threatening to expand attacks on Saudi shipping, and the longer term status of Hormuz remains unresolved.

Over the next few days, there are 5 indicators worth watching. First, whether Tehran publicly endorses the same agreement Washington announces. Second, whether commercial vessels actually begin using the proposed shipping lanes. Third, whether insurers reduce war risk premiums, which would signal that the shipping industry believes the threat has eased. Fourth, whether the Houthis follow through on their threat to target Saudi oil tankers farther north in the Red Sea. Finally, whether both sides use the 60 day window to restart nuclear negotiations, or whether another attack at sea derails the process before it begins.

Diplomatic agreements can be announced in a single afternoon. Confidence in a shipping lane takes much longer to rebuild. The first indication that this framework is working will not come from Washington or Tehran. It will come from the captains who decide to sail through the Strait and the insurers willing to underwrite the voyage.