This is no longer simply an exchange of airstrikes between the United States and Iran. The fight is now centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on commercial shipping are triggering increasingly larger military responses. For now, Israel remains on the sidelines as Washington leads the campaign, but that could quickly change if the conflict expands or Iranian actions cross Israeli red lines.

The latest escalation began on July 11 when IRGC naval forces attacked the Cyprus flagged container ship M/V GFS Galaxy while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The vessel caught fire after suffering significant engine room damage, forcing the crew to abandon ship. One civilian crew member remains missing. Iranian officials claimed the ship ignored repeated orders to alter its course and accused it of using an unauthorized route through the waterway. Soon afterward, the IRGC Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz was closed until further notice, declaring that no commercial vessel would be permitted to pass until the United States ended its military intervention. Whether Iran can fully enforce that declaration is another question, but politically it amounted to a direct challenge to the longstanding international position that the Strait remains open to lawful navigation.

The American response followed within hours. CENTCOM launched another large wave of strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, hitting approximately 140 targets across the country.

According to the U.S. military, the operation targeted missile launch sites, drone facilities, ammunition depots, naval capabilities, communications infrastructure and coastal surveillance systems supporting operations around the Strait of Hormuz. Those strikes followed similar operations earlier in the week, bringing the total number of reported American targets hit to more than 300. The response suggests Washington is no longer treating attacks on commercial shipping as isolated incidents. Instead, every attack is being met with a broader effort to reduce Iran’s ability to threaten maritime traffic.

Iran answered by widening the battlefield rather than concentrating solely on the Strait. The IRGC announced missile and drone attacks against American military facilities in Jordan, Qatar and Oman, while the Iranian Army separately claimed strikes on U.S. military infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian state media said command centers, aircraft facilities, air defense systems and logistical infrastructure were successfully hit, although many of those specific claims have not been independently verified. Regardless of the final damage assessments, the geographic spread of the attacks shows Iran is signaling that countries hosting American forces could increasingly find themselves drawn into the conflict.

The Gulf states were quickly forced to respond. Qatar reported intercepting incoming projectiles but also confirmed injuries caused by falling debris. Kuwait said its air defenses intercepted missiles and drones. Jordan announced that multiple missiles were shot down before reaching their targets. Bahrain activated its air defense network, while the United Arab Emirates issued public missile and drone warnings. Although none of these governments appear eager to become direct participants, the latest exchange demonstrates how difficult it is becoming for them to remain outside the conflict while American forces continue operating from their territory.

As military operations continued, CENTCOM publicly rejected Iran’s declaration that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz. The command stated that the waterway remains open to lawful commercial traffic, that shipping continues to move through the Strait and that U.S. forces are positioned to ensure freedom of navigation. It also stated plainly that Iran does not control the Strait. That statement goes to the heart of the current confrontation. Iran is attempting to establish itself as the authority governing passage through Hormuz, while the United States is making clear that it will not allow that claim to stand.

The political messaging has hardened alongside the military exchanges. Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that the era of one sided agreements had ended and said the United States would pay a price if it failed to honor its commitments. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as Iran’s supreme leader, issued his first public statement since taking power, promising revenge for the killing of Ali Khamenei. The IRGC said military operations would continue until what it describes as American interference in the region ends. At the same time, President Trump indicated that talks with Iran could still continue despite the ongoing exchange of strikes, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that Tehran had made a poor choice and suggested additional American military action remains possible if attacks on shipping or U.S. forces continue.

For now, Israel has remained out of this latest round of fighting.

The confrontation is being led by the United States and Iran, while Gulf states are increasingly being pulled into the conflict because of their role in hosting American forces. Whether Israel stays out will likely depend less on decisions made in Jerusalem than on how far the IRGC chooses to expand the battlefield. If Iran keeps the fight focused on American forces and commercial shipping, Israel may continue watching from the sidelines. If that changes, the conflict could take on an entirely different dimension.