Nearly 5 months after Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening hours of the US and Israeli strikes on February 28, Iran is amidst one of the largest state funerals in its modern history. Officials claim tens of millions are expected to take part in ceremonies ending with his burial in Mashhad on July 9. Yet the man who succeeded him as supreme leader is absent.
According to multiple reports, Iranian security officials refused Mojtaba Khamenei’s request to attend his father’s burial and lead the funeral prayer. Their concern was not political. They reportedly concluded that any public appearance would create an opportunity for Israel to locate or assassinate him, or allow intelligence agencies to trace his movements back to his hiding place. The decision means the new supreme leader will not attend the burial of the man whose position he inherited.

His absence is part of a much broader pattern that has defined Iran’s leadership since the war began. Mojtaba has not appeared publicly for months. He also did not attend the memorial service for his own wife and teenage son, who were killed alongside other members of the Khamenei family during the opening US and Israeli strikes. Even after losing his closest relatives, security officials reportedly determined that appearing in public carried too much risk.

Instead, photographs from the funeral ceremonies showed 3 of Ali Khamenei’s other sons, Mostafa, Meysam and Masoud, standing beside their father’s coffin in Tehran. The contrast was impossible to miss. While millions watched the funeral ceremonies unfold, the country’s new supreme leader remained out of sight.

His disappearance has fueled intense speculation inside Iran about both his health and his ability to govern.

Reports indicate Mojtaba survived the February strike but suffered serious injuries. He reportedly underwent 3 surgeries on one leg and is now waiting for a prosthetic limb. He also sustained severe burns that have affected his speech, making public appearances difficult. People familiar with his condition describe him as mentally alert and fully engaged in decision making, but say his physical injuries have contributed to his continued isolation.

The security surrounding him is unlike anything previously reported for an Iranian leader. Rather than relying on electronic communications, messages are reportedly written by hand, sealed, and passed through a chain of trusted couriers traveling by car and motorcycle before reaching his undisclosed location. The system is designed to eliminate electronic signals that could expose where he is hiding. According to the reports, even senior Revolutionary Guard commanders avoid visiting him because repeated travel to the same location could create a pattern visible to Israeli intelligence.

That extraordinary level of secrecy has also changed how the Islamic Republic functions.

Unlike his father, who personally dominated nearly every major political and military decision for almost 4 decades, Mojtaba is described as presiding over a leadership structure in which several senior Revolutionary Guard commanders exercise substantial influence. Officials familiar with the arrangement describe him less as a dominant decision maker and more as someone who coordinates among powerful military figures who now oversee security, military operations and strategic policy.

Several names repeatedly appear at the center of that structure, including IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, Gen. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr of the Supreme National Security Council, and senior military adviser Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi. Their influence reflects both the wartime environment and Mojtaba’s own background. Unlike his father, he never developed the same religious authority or political standing. Many of his closest relationships were formed decades ago while serving as a volunteer during the Iran Iraq War, where he developed longstanding ties with figures such as Hossein Taeb, Mohsen Rezaei and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Those relationships now appear to be shaping the country’s decision making.

The shift has become particularly visible during negotiations with the United States. Abbas Araghchi, who for years served as Iran’s principal diplomat in talks with Western governments, has reportedly seen his role significantly reduced. According to several reports, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has taken a much larger role in contacts surrounding the ceasefire and subsequent negotiations, reflecting the growing influence of military aligned officials over the traditional diplomatic establishment.

At the same time, Mojtaba’s prolonged absence has exposed divisions inside the Islamic regime that had largely remained hidden while his father was alive. Reports describe increasingly open disagreements over who should direct the country’s future after the war.

One faction, associated with President Masoud Pezeshkian, Ghalibaf and Gen. Zolghadr, has argued that Iran’s military and economic situation leaves little choice but to continue negotiations with the United States and preserve the ceasefire. Another faction, made up of hardliners inside the Revolutionary Guard and the political establishment, continues to oppose concessions and argues that the Islamic Republic should maintain its traditional confrontational approach despite the damage suffered during the conflict.
Economic pressure appears to have become one of the decisive factors behind those debates. According to reports, Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemati warned Mojtaba directly that the country was facing a severe budget crisis and that shortages of food and medical supplies could begin emerging by the end of August if the war and sanctions continued. Those warnings reportedly played a significant role in persuading him to support negotiations, despite publicly maintaining that he opposed such concessions on principle.

The result is a leadership transition unlike any previous transfer of power in the Islamic Republic. Iran has a supreme leader who cannot safely appear at his own father’s funeral, who reportedly communicates through handwritten notes delivered by couriers, and whose security concerns have reshaped the country’s entire decision making structure. Whether this arrangement proves temporary or becomes the new model for governing Iran remains uncertain.

Ali Khamenei’s funeral was expected to symbolize continuity after nearly 4 decades of his rule. Instead, it has highlighted how much has changed. The country’s most powerful office is now occupied by a leader who remains hidden from public view while a circle of Revolutionary Guard commanders plays an increasingly prominent role in directing the Islamic Republic.