President Donald Trump announced Sunday night that talks on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would begin Monday, adding that a nuclear agreement would follow. He also said Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iran had all asked him to cancel what he described as the biggest planned military attack since World War II. It was the second time he had halted a major strike package at the last minute. Oil fell more than 6 percent to around $88, while the Tehran Stock Exchange also moved higher as investors priced a diplomatic breakthrough.

By today, Monday morning, Iran’s public position was almost the opposite.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei spent roughly 90 minutes rejecting the central elements of Trump’s announcement. He said there are no direct negotiations with the U.S., no plans to exchange delegations “during these days,” and that the only discussions underway are with Oman over a temporary maritime route. He also stated that as long as U.S. military pressure continues, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. An agreement with Oman, he said, is not enough to reopen it.

Iran is not publicly describing a reopening of the Strait. It is describing a controlled shipping route through a waterway it still says remains closed.

Iran’s Message To Saudi Arabia

Trump included Iran among the countries that urged him to stand down.

During the same period, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned his Saudi counterpart that any U.S. or Israeli military action, including participation by regional states, would draw a decisive response and that those responsible would face the consequences.

The two public messages are difficult to reconcile. One presents Iran as part of a regional effort to prevent military action. The other warns Gulf governments against supporting one.

The Strait Is Still Under Pressure

Baghaei described the proposal as a single shipping lane with designated entry and exit points negotiated through Oman, distinguishing it from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran is not holding direct negotiations with the U.S. and has no plans to exchange delegations “during these days.” According to Baghaei, the only discussions underway concern the temporary maritime corridor, the U.S. is not participating, and an agreement with Oman alone would not reopen the Strait. He said the current restrictions will remain in place as long as what Iran describes as U.S. military aggression continues. Baghaei also said Pakistan is serving as the primary intermediary between Iran and the U.S., with Qatar assisting message exchanges, while maintaining that no negotiations with Washington are taking place.

As markets reacted to Trump’s announcement, UKMTO reported an incident approximately 20 nautical miles northeast of Khasab. Iranian forces also reportedly took warning action against the empty tanker Velos Amber as it entered the Gulf through the Omani route. The vessel completed its transit and was off the UAE coast by Monday morning.

Commercial shipping continued to encounter Iranian pressure even as markets priced a diplomatic settlement.

Military Preparations Have Not Ended

Israeli officials are reportedly frustrated by Trump’s second cancellation, with thousands of troops placed on alert and operational planning disrupted. Trump declined to comment on reports that American forces were being repositioned from Bahrain and Kuwait. Al Jazeera’s Tehran bureau reported no change in U.S. military posture.

Reports that Qatar and Pakistan are attempting to facilitate indirect contacts between the U.S. and Iran point to continued diplomatic activity.

So What Changed? Where Are We Now?

Several developments would materially change the current assessment.

Iranian officials would begin acknowledging direct negotiations with the U.S. Commercial vessels would transit the Omani corridor without repeated UKMTO advisories or reported attacks. Public statements from both governments would begin describing the same diplomatic process instead of different ones.

As of today, none of those conditions exist.

From the outside, very little has changed besides oil prices. The U.S. is pushing for a diplomatic breakthrough. Iran continues to deny direct negotiations and insists the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Commercial vessels are still operating under the same military pressure that existed before Trump’s announcement.